Karma Velkyn wrotesiobhan scholman wroteTrelawney made a lot of 'fraud' predictions that actually came true. I'll make a list:- She predicted Lupin would not be 'with them very long' in a conversation with Mcgonagall. He left at the end of the school year. Ofcourse this could be a coincidence, as all DADA professors left after a year of teaching.- She thought Harry was born in the winter, when he was in July. Voldemort however, is born in January I believe. It could be a coincidence, but I don't think so. I think she sensed the other soul, but thought it was Harry.- Every time it's mentioned that Trelawney predicted Harry being stalked by the Grim, a few pages later he would see Sirius in animagus form. I think Trelawney saw a dog in Harry's teacup etc and assumed it was the Grim, while it meant Sirius in animagus form.- In book 5, she gave Umbridge a fake prediction, telling her she was in grave peril. At the end of the year, she gets taken away by centaurs who do Merlin knows what to her.- She was also right with her fear that if 13 dine together the first one to rise dies. In the OotP, they celebrate Christmas with 13 people. Sirius was the first one to stand up, and he died at the end of the year. Same with Christmas they celebrated at Hogwarts in year 3 I think it was. Trelawney was scared to sit at the table because then there would be 13 of them, but what she didn't know was that Scabbers, who was also there, is human. Dumbledore stood up to welcome her. He was the first to die from everyone at the table, in HBP.Ofcourse most predictions she make are fake, like the Grim one, but she also made some correct ones not counting the prophecy.I'm with Hermione on this one though--I feel like most of these are coincidence, or based on other skills that aren't actual skills related to magic or divination. I suspect Trelawney is very good at reading people and situations and making educated guesses (ever seen that show 'The Mentalist'? He 'predicts' things on a regular basis, but it's largely about reading emotions, body language, and little details here and there). For example, in her first appearance she 'predicts' that Neville will break a teacup and asks him to pick a different colored one afterwards. But anybody who is familiar with Neville's character knows he's prone to clumsiness, breaking things, and generally being nervous, so one can make a fairly educated guess that he'll break one of the cups--especially if you put it in his head that he's going to break one of the cups (a self-fulfilling prophecy if you will). The other thing that has always struck me about her 'predictions' is that Trelawney is always intentionally vague about how she words things, which means they can be interpreted in any number of ways--and thus can be made to fit situations. For example, the Lupin prediction you offered, that he would 'not be with them very long.' How long is long? Is it a day? A week? A month? It ended up being interpreted as a year, which to me seems like it's actually a fairly long time, but in the context of the school years perhaps it isn't. And what does 'be with them' mean? Is he going to die? Just leave? Change sides/teams/whatever? This prediction encompasses almost anything Lupin does, from falling down stairs and breaking his next the next day, to running off and joining Voldemort next week, to leaving the school at the end of the year because nobody wants a werewolf teaching their kids. Hermione's example with 'that thing you are dreading, it will happen on the 16th of October' is also true (although she was admittedly a bit tactless in explaining it): 'that thing you are dreading' could be anything that happened that day that you didn't like, and because no day is perfect, you will find something if you look hard enough, even if it's just stubbing your toe or getting in an argument with your mom. The same can be said of absolutely any prediction that somebody is going to die, because let's face it, everybody is destined to die one day, and predictions of 'grave peril' aren't all that out of place either in the wizarding world when Voldemort is also on the loose. The point is these self-fulfilling prophecies aren't really predictions so much as they are suggestions that get you to pay attention to details and then choose to apply it to said predictions. It kind of reminds me of a family member's experience in a class once. The professor went and found everybody's horoscope according to their birth date and all the specific details necessary. He handed everybody's individual horoscope to each specific student and told them to read them. The students did, and when asked if the horoscope described them specifically, everybody agreed the traits and things listed did match with them perfectly. Then the professor asked them to show their horoscopes to the kid sitting next to them. They did--everybody had the exact same horoscope and everybody found some way to excuse or agree with the traits they supposedly had, even though every person in the classroom was different. The thing is, if you are told something exists and you believe it, you can find virtually any excuse or reasoning to support it, which is where Trelawney's vague, self-fulfilling prophecies come in.
I also think that that could be a possibility, too. I think that there is a lot of reasoning behind both viewpoints and I don't think we will ever find out for sure.