Trelawney's (Real) Predictions

So it's fairly well established throughout the books that Professor Trelawney is largely a fraud with her predictions, but occasionally has actual 'real' ones. In these instances her voice and posture notably change and she gets scarily specific about things that are about to happen. When the trance is over she displays no knowledge of having actually made any of these predictions.Now, at the end of PoA Dumbledore mentions that she's only made two actual predictions. The first is the one made about Pettigrew in PoA; the second is, obviously, explored in greater depth in OotP and onward. But I wonder...could she have made even more than that? PoA establishes that she almost never comes down into the main castle, preferring to stay in her little loft. It's also established that she usually lives up there alone. And she can't remember when she actually predicts anything because she assumes she 'dozed off' for a little bit. So what if she's making legitimate predictions on a regular basis but there's nobody around to hear them?
So it's fairly well established throughout the books that Professor Trelawney is largely a fraud with her predictions, but occasionally has actual 'real' ones. In these instances her voice and posture notably change and she gets scarily specific about things that are about to happen. When the trance is over she displays no knowledge of having actually made any of these predictions.Now, at the end of PoA Dumbledore mentions that she's only made two actual predictions. The first is the one made about Pettigrew in PoA; the second is, obviously, explored in greater depth in OotP and onward. But I wonder...could she have made even more than that? PoA establishes that she almost never comes down into the main castle, preferring to stay in her little loft. It's also established that she usually lives up there alone. And she can't remember when she actually predicts anything because she assumes she 'dozed off' for a little bit. So what if she's making legitimate predictions on a regular basis but there's nobody around to hear them?
I reckon they probably still get recorded... my book knowledge isn't the best (only read them once each, and listened to a couple of the audiobooks since), but I don't think  there was mention of anyone needing to be around to hear them for them to be recorded.  Some kind of magic obviously makes the orbs or whatever they are that contain the predictions, and they are regulated in the Department of Mysteries.I think...!
Trelawney made a lot of 'fraud' predictions that actually came true. I'll make a list:- She predicted Lupin would not be 'with them very long' in a conversation with Mcgonagall. He left at the end of the school year. Ofcourse this could be a coincidence, as all DADA professors left after a year of teaching.- She thought Harry was born in the winter, when he was in July. Voldemort however, is born in January I believe. It could be a coincidence, but I don't think so. I think she sensed the other soul, but thought it was Harry.- Every time it's mentioned that Trelawney predicted Harry being stalked by the Grim, a few pages later he would see Sirius in animagus form. I think Trelawney saw a dog in Harry's teacup etc and assumed it was the Grim, while it meant Sirius in animagus form.- In book 5, she gave Umbridge a fake prediction, telling her she was in grave peril. At the end of the year, she gets taken away by centaurs who do Merlin knows what to her.- She was also right with her fear that if 13 dine together the first one to rise dies. In the OotP, they celebrate Christmas with 13 people. Sirius was the first one to stand up, and he died at the end of the year. Same with Christmas they celebrated at Hogwarts in year 3 I think it was. Trelawney was scared to sit at the table because then there would be 13 of them, but what she didn't know was that Scabbers, who was also there, is human. Dumbledore stood up to welcome her. He was the first to die from everyone at the table, in HBP.Ofcourse most predictions she make are fake, like the Grim one, but she also made some correct ones not counting the prophecy.
Awesome observations Siobahn! 
siobhan scholman wroteTrelawney made a lot of 'fraud' predictions that actually came true. I'll make a list:- She predicted Lupin would not be 'with them very long' in a conversation with Mcgonagall. He left at the end of the school year. Ofcourse this could be a coincidence, as all DADA professors left after a year of teaching.- She thought Harry was born in the winter, when he was in July. Voldemort however, is born in January I believe. It could be a coincidence, but I don't think so. I think she sensed the other soul, but thought it was Harry.- Every time it's mentioned that Trelawney predicted Harry being stalked by the Grim, a few pages later he would see Sirius in animagus form. I think Trelawney saw a dog in Harry's teacup etc and assumed it was the Grim, while it meant Sirius in animagus form.- In book 5, she gave Umbridge a fake prediction, telling her she was in grave peril. At the end of the year, she gets taken away by centaurs who do Merlin knows what to her.- She was also right with her fear that if 13 dine together the first one to rise dies. In the OotP, they celebrate Christmas with 13 people. Sirius was the first one to stand up, and he died at the end of the year. Same with Christmas they celebrated at Hogwarts in year 3 I think it was. Trelawney was scared to sit at the table because then there would be 13 of them, but what she didn't know was that Scabbers, who was also there, is human. Dumbledore stood up to welcome her. He was the first to die from everyone at the table, in HBP.Ofcourse most predictions she make are fake, like the Grim one, but she also made some correct ones not counting the prophecy.I'm with Hermione on this one though--I feel like most of these are coincidence, or based on other skills that aren't actual skills related to magic or divination. I suspect Trelawney is very good at reading people and situations and making educated guesses (ever seen that show 'The Mentalist'? He 'predicts' things on a regular basis, but it's largely about reading emotions, body language, and little details here and there). For example, in her first appearance she 'predicts' that Neville will break a teacup and asks him to pick a different colored one afterwards. But anybody who is familiar with Neville's character knows he's prone to clumsiness, breaking things, and generally being nervous, so one can make a fairly educated guess that he'll break one of the cups--especially if you put it in his head that he's going to break one of the cups (a self-fulfilling prophecy if you will). The other thing that has always struck me about her 'predictions' is that Trelawney is always intentionally vague about how she words things, which means they can be interpreted in any number of ways--and thus can be made to fit situations. For example, the Lupin prediction you offered, that he would 'not be with them very long.' How long is long? Is it a day? A week? A month? It ended up being interpreted as a year, which to me seems like it's actually a fairly long time, but in the context of the school years perhaps it isn't. And what does 'be with them' mean? Is he going to die? Just leave? Change sides/teams/whatever? This prediction encompasses almost anything Lupin does, from falling down stairs and breaking his next the next day, to running off and joining Voldemort next week, to leaving the school at the end of the year because nobody wants a werewolf teaching their kids. Hermione's example with 'that thing you are dreading, it will happen on the 16th of October' is also true (although she was admittedly a bit tactless in explaining it): 'that thing you are dreading' could be anything that happened that day that you didn't like, and because no day is perfect, you will find something if you look hard enough, even if it's just stubbing your toe or getting in an argument with your mom. The same can be said of absolutely any prediction that somebody is going to die, because let's face it, everybody is destined to die one day, and predictions of 'grave peril' aren't all that out of place either in the wizarding world when Voldemort is also on the loose. The point is these self-fulfilling prophecies aren't really predictions so much as they are suggestions that get you to pay attention to details and then choose to apply it to said predictions. It kind of reminds me of a family member's experience in a class once. The professor went and found everybody's horoscope according to their birth date and all the specific details necessary. He handed everybody's individual horoscope to each specific student and told them to read them. The students did, and when asked if the horoscope described them specifically, everybody agreed the traits and things listed did match with them perfectly. Then the professor asked them to show their horoscopes to the kid sitting next to them. They did--everybody had the exact same horoscope and everybody found some way to excuse or agree with the traits they supposedly had, even though every person in the classroom was different. The thing is, if you are told something exists and you believe it, you can find virtually any excuse or reasoning to support it, which is where Trelawney's vague, self-fulfilling prophecies come in.
I agree with you, as I also stated with some predictions I wrote down. A lot of it is vague, and it just so happens something happens which Trelawney could have meant. But I also think we shouldn't just immediately write her off as a fraud. Everything we know about Trelawney, we have seen through Harry's eyes. He throught she was a fraud, and so all we see of her is her failing at her job. But there's a lot we don't know about her. We shouldn't forget she's a descendant from Cassandra, a famous seeress. I think Trelawney does have Cassandra's gifts, we're shown that when she made the prophecy about Harry and Voldemort, and in book 3 when she predicts Pettigrew escaping. I just think Trelawney doesn't have control of her abilities, which lead to a lot of weird and wrong predictions. But they do tend to come true in one way or another.Another example I just thought of happens in book 6. Harry happens to see Trelawney reading her cards, but she keeps thinking she's read them wrong, when in truth she reads them correctly. She lays down the card meaning conflict, at the time she's at conflict with Firenze sharing her classes and Dumbledore because he appointed her. The second card is the card for ill omen.  I think we all know what this means, and I don't need to explain it. The third card is the card for Violence. This ofcourse means the battle at the end of the book and Dumbledore's death. The last card is the, I quote, “Knave of Spades. Dark young man, possibly troubled, one who dislikes the questioner.” This means Harry, who is secretly watching her and in conflict about Voldemort. Trelawney doesn't know this though, so she keeps thinking something's wrong. Later in the book Trelawney mentions to Harry about how she keeps getting the Lightning Struck Tower card, this card speaks for itself. Harry keeps thinking she's a fraud because he didn't pay attention to Trelawney at the time, but this shows that she does have the power of divination. This is why I think she just doesn't have a very good control over it.
It is never stated in the books exactly how the Prophecy Records end up in the Hall of Prophecy. It is possible, I suppose, that there is some kind of enchantment that automatically captures any true prophecy spoken. However, I don't believe this is true. When the prophecies are broken open the images that appear strongly resemble memories from the Pensive, particularly when Dumbledore finally shows Harry the prophecy about himself. Dumbledore places the memory into the Pensive, but the image of Trelawney rises above it. Therefore, it is my personal belief that all of the prophecies contained in the Hall of Prophecies are actually copies of memories from when the prophecy was given. Remember the prophecy in question was labelled "SPT to APWBD about (Voldemort) and ? (Harry Potter). Sorry, I don't remember how they listed Voldemort's name. Harry's name wasn't added until after Voldemort went after Harry. If it's true that all of the prophecies in the Hall are copies of the memories, then Karma may well be correct that Professor Trelawney *may* have had other true prophecies. If no one heard them, they never would have made it to the Hall. Also remember that at the end of PoA Dumbledore says that she has made *at least two* true prophecies, implying that he knows there *may* be other unrecorded prophecies.
siobhan scholman wroteTrelawney made a lot of 'fraud' predictions that actually came true. I'll make a list:- She predicted Lupin would not be 'with them very long' in a conversation with Mcgonagall. He left at the end of the school year. Ofcourse this could be a coincidence, as all DADA professors left after a year of teaching.- She thought Harry was born in the winter, when he was in July. Voldemort however, is born in January I believe. It could be a coincidence, but I don't think so. I think she sensed the other soul, but thought it was Harry.- Every time it's mentioned that Trelawney predicted Harry being stalked by the Grim, a few pages later he would see Sirius in animagus form. I think Trelawney saw a dog in Harry's teacup etc and assumed it was the Grim, while it meant Sirius in animagus form.- In book 5, she gave Umbridge a fake prediction, telling her she was in grave peril. At the end of the year, she gets taken away by centaurs who do Merlin knows what to her.- She was also right with her fear that if 13 dine together the first one to rise dies. In the OotP, they celebrate Christmas with 13 people. Sirius was the first one to stand up, and he died at the end of the year. Same with Christmas they celebrated at Hogwarts in year 3 I think it was. Trelawney was scared to sit at the table because then there would be 13 of them, but what she didn't know was that Scabbers, who was also there, is human. Dumbledore stood up to welcome her. He was the first to die from everyone at the table, in HBP.Ofcourse most predictions she make are fake, like the Grim one, but she also made some correct ones not counting the prophecy.I knew about a lot of those, but not the one about Dumbledore and Scabbers. You are right, I think that she is not a fraud. There are some others that I have noticed, too. Like (only one example because I don't like making huge lists) when she tells Neville to get a blue teacup after he breaks the first one.
Karma Velkyn wrotesiobhan scholman wroteTrelawney made a lot of 'fraud' predictions that actually came true. I'll make a list:- She predicted Lupin would not be 'with them very long' in a conversation with Mcgonagall. He left at the end of the school year. Ofcourse this could be a coincidence, as all DADA professors left after a year of teaching.- She thought Harry was born in the winter, when he was in July. Voldemort however, is born in January I believe. It could be a coincidence, but I don't think so. I think she sensed the other soul, but thought it was Harry.- Every time it's mentioned that Trelawney predicted Harry being stalked by the Grim, a few pages later he would see Sirius in animagus form. I think Trelawney saw a dog in Harry's teacup etc and assumed it was the Grim, while it meant Sirius in animagus form.- In book 5, she gave Umbridge a fake prediction, telling her she was in grave peril. At the end of the year, she gets taken away by centaurs who do Merlin knows what to her.- She was also right with her fear that if 13 dine together the first one to rise dies. In the OotP, they celebrate Christmas with 13 people. Sirius was the first one to stand up, and he died at the end of the year. Same with Christmas they celebrated at Hogwarts in year 3 I think it was. Trelawney was scared to sit at the table because then there would be 13 of them, but what she didn't know was that Scabbers, who was also there, is human. Dumbledore stood up to welcome her. He was the first to die from everyone at the table, in HBP.Ofcourse most predictions she make are fake, like the Grim one, but she also made some correct ones not counting the prophecy.I'm with Hermione on this one though--I feel like most of these are coincidence, or based on other skills that aren't actual skills related to magic or divination. I suspect Trelawney is very good at reading people and situations and making educated guesses (ever seen that show 'The Mentalist'? He 'predicts' things on a regular basis, but it's largely about reading emotions, body language, and little details here and there). For example, in her first appearance she 'predicts' that Neville will break a teacup and asks him to pick a different colored one afterwards. But anybody who is familiar with Neville's character knows he's prone to clumsiness, breaking things, and generally being nervous, so one can make a fairly educated guess that he'll break one of the cups--especially if you put it in his head that he's going to break one of the cups (a self-fulfilling prophecy if you will). The other thing that has always struck me about her 'predictions' is that Trelawney is always intentionally vague about how she words things, which means they can be interpreted in any number of ways--and thus can be made to fit situations. For example, the Lupin prediction you offered, that he would 'not be with them very long.' How long is long? Is it a day? A week? A month? It ended up being interpreted as a year, which to me seems like it's actually a fairly long time, but in the context of the school years perhaps it isn't. And what does 'be with them' mean? Is he going to die? Just leave? Change sides/teams/whatever? This prediction encompasses almost anything Lupin does, from falling down stairs and breaking his next the next day, to running off and joining Voldemort next week, to leaving the school at the end of the year because nobody wants a werewolf teaching their kids. Hermione's example with 'that thing you are dreading, it will happen on the 16th of October' is also true (although she was admittedly a bit tactless in explaining it): 'that thing you are dreading' could be anything that happened that day that you didn't like, and because no day is perfect, you will find something if you look hard enough, even if it's just stubbing your toe or getting in an argument with your mom. The same can be said of absolutely any prediction that somebody is going to die, because let's face it, everybody is destined to die one day, and predictions of 'grave peril' aren't all that out of place either in the wizarding world when Voldemort is also on the loose. The point is these self-fulfilling prophecies aren't really predictions so much as they are suggestions that get you to pay attention to details and then choose to apply it to said predictions. It kind of reminds me of a family member's experience in a class once. The professor went and found everybody's horoscope according to their birth date and all the specific details necessary. He handed everybody's individual horoscope to each specific student and told them to read them. The students did, and when asked if the horoscope described them specifically, everybody agreed the traits and things listed did match with them perfectly. Then the professor asked them to show their horoscopes to the kid sitting next to them. They did--everybody had the exact same horoscope and everybody found some way to excuse or agree with the traits they supposedly had, even though every person in the classroom was different. The thing is, if you are told something exists and you believe it, you can find virtually any excuse or reasoning to support it, which is where Trelawney's vague, self-fulfilling prophecies come in. I also think that that could be a possibility, too. I think that there is a lot of reasoning behind both viewpoints and I don't think we will ever find out for sure.
well I think Trelawney has made predictions through out the series well when she saw the grim it was Sirius in dog form and when Ron looks at Harrys cup he says that he will come across an unexpected amount of gold wich in the forth book he does I could go on but I have to get to a lesson.

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